chances and votes for the government-

The fate of the government, and the obligation of the Quirinale to manage the crisis should it be transformed from virtual to formal, will depend on what Giuseppe Conte will say between today and tomorrow in Parliament. And also how to say it. Here is what Sergio Mattarella wants to verify after the great confusion on the negotiations in progress, to evaluate what possibilities the Prime Minister’s resistance to abandoning the semi-sunken ship of the executive has seriously and, in the hypothesis of a bailout, to insure himself for the future a non-adventurous navigation. Not too much, at least, because in this season of multiple emergencies we can’t afford it. For sure, for him, there is only that Tuesday will not be the epilogue, but the beginning of a new phase with an uncertain outcome.

And here comes the question mark that also worries the Quirinale: how will Conte speak to Renzi? Will he cut ties behind his back, addressing the senator of Florence with the harshness he used towards Salvini, on 20 August 2019, when the Northern League leader annihilated the yellow-green alliance? Or will he resort to some rhetorical cunning, nonchalantly ignoring (but it would really take a lot) the accusation of having created a democratic vulnus, to keep the door open to a hypothetical collaboration with IV, if not even to the recovery of the old pact?

It is up to the prime minister to resolve these knots, which are also decisive for the scenarios for which the head of state is preparing, who at this stage completely refrains from interfering so that his institutional role of guarantee is not questioned, in the event of a crisis. became full-blown and had to manage it personally.

Now, given that the Constitution does not require governments to be baptized by an absolute majority, that of 161 votes in the Senate, Conte and his rescuers gathered under the banner of a parliamentary group can suffice. simple (or relative) majority. A goal that can be achieved with one more vote than those put together by the opposition. There are about thirty precedents, including a couple linked to the Berlusconian era, which bind Mattarella to accept – however you judge it – such a result. From which, incidentally, the premier would automatically exit confirmed at the helm of Palazzo Chigi, without having to resign and be reborn under the heading ter. So much so that, according to practice, Conte might not even feel obliged to go up to the Quirinale, if not out of courtesy, or to propose a reshuffle, which is moreover largely predictable.

Of course, in such an eventuality it is logical to think that Mattarella would want to meet the premier. To recommend him to do the impossible to build a shared political platform, and therefore a common program, in which the renewed executive recognizes itself. Otherwise we would risk soon finding ourselves hostage to a permanent and paralyzing instability.

If, on the other hand, I miss everything on Tuesday evening, the game will pass into the hands of the head of state. That I will open them in a rush consultations to ascertain if there are alternative solutions.

It risks being a platonic attempt. He, and he has made it known several times, considers that the political formulas practicable with this Parliament have been consummated with this executive. Therefore he fears, in spite of himself, of having to set up an emergency or purpose or technical or institutional government or whatever you want to call it, which is limited to closing the Recovery Plan construction site and taking care of the vaccination campaign, to bring the country to the polls in late spring.

January 18, 2021 (change January 18, 2021 | 09:33)


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