Another thud. The decline in consumption worse than expected and also continues in December with a decrease of 11% compared to the same period of the previous year (it is worth remembering that in November the braking was 16%). The effects of the pandemic and government-imposed closures in the closing period of last year are measured by the analysis of the Confcommercio, which for 2020 definitively estimates a loss of wealth of 9 percentage points for the Italian economy and a overall decline actual consumption of –10,8%.
But to disturb the start of 2021, the bet on a rebound in the production and consumption system appears, according to Confcommercio, to be a gamble, so much so as to question the government’s forecast that indicates a GDP growth of 6%. Estimates from the Confederation chaired by Carlo Sangalli indicate that January will register a cyclical decline in GDP of 0.8%, a decline that would translate on a trend basis to a -10.7% compared to January 2020. An alarming picture that pushes Sangalli to say: 2021 begins more uphill than expected: Covid emergency again, data on consumption decreasing and GDP in sharp decline. It is difficult – he underlines – to imagine the rebound expected by the government. A very serious situation that risks worsening with the current political crisis.
And the observation of a scenario conditioned by uncertainty, the same that last December weakened the desire to consume of families, leaves little room for optimism. The timing of the economic recovery becomes an exercise of hope rather than projection. Even imagining – observes Confcommercio – a recovery in late spring, in fact, the restrictions on production will continue for a long time.