Government in the balance, all scenarios A week for the new Corriere.it group

Andrea Marcucci with a marine metaphor explains that we are in the perilous sea, the former minister Teresa Bellanova argues that Conte preferred the vote of Berlusconi Maria Teresa Rossi to mine, and the Northern League Roberto Calderoli notes that from the 156 votes of confidence, on the budget variance, it has already dropped to 152: But where are you going, if you already lose votes ?. A question that is not only asked by the opposition, but which also worries many members of the majority and which will have to be answered by Wednesday, when the Senate will vote on a report by the Minister of Justice Alfonso Bonafede. With the risk of going under and precipitating the crisis.

The questions

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte had a meeting with the head of state. Interlocutory, courtesy interview. Formulas that hide the uncertainty that prevails at Palazzo Chigi, which did not have many answers to the many questions that the Colle asks itself and that resonate in the Chambers. Will the majority of Italia Viva come back? Where will the votes to move forward be found? Will there be a new centrist group that refers to Conte? Will a new legislative pact be made? If these questions were not answered soon, the only way forward would be that of the polls. Via dolorosa for a country that is suffering from the consequences of the pandemic and that needs certain guidance, also considering Europe’s unrest and the impressive aid plan of the Recovery Fund.

The role of the premier

Among the knots there are the ability and the will of the premier to expose himself in the first person. From the centrist Bruno Tabacci to the socialist Riccardo Nencini, there are many who ask Conte to take a step forward and take the lead of a newborn group. The premier, however, hesitates. Because he is not sure that the operation will have a positive outcome and because he has (or perhaps had by now) a more attractive alternative option, that of putting himself at the head of the 5 Star Movement. One of his parties, in fact, as Enrico Mentana revealed yesterday, given by SWG at 15-17 percent. But it is one thing to form a party when you go to the polls, another to gather unreliable castaways and displaced persons. In that case, if the operation fails, not only the government will be overwhelmed but the credibility of the premier will also be wiped out. In these hours Conte asks himself: is it worth trying? Does it make sense to die for Ciampolillo?

The centrists

But where are they looking for reinforcements for the group? The political project, if we want to give it this dignity, passes through an axis that crosses the Democratic Center of Tabacci, tangentially touches Forza Italia and tries to reabsorb a part of Italia Viva. The center – political and Catholic – had not been so courted for years. Effects of the crisis and the proportional law entered at the heart of the negotiations. The UDC in great suffering. For two reasons. The first that acts as a tow of a national sovereign coalition. Many historical exponents of the center do not tolerate the Salvinian drift and would appreciate even less a guide by Giorgia Meloni. The second very recent reason dates back to this morning, when an operation of the Dia di Catanzaro, coordinated by the prosecutor of Nicola Gratteri, led to the arrest of dozens alleged members of gangs. Finished under house arrest Franco Talarico, regional secretary of the UDC and regional councilor for the budget. Lorenzo Cesa, secretary of the UDC, under investigation for external competition in the mafia association. Enough to make it more difficult for the UDC to reach the center-left. But the operation could also have the opposite effect, inducing some MPs to disengage from the party. The Senate has long been talking about Antonio Saccone and of Paola Binetti.

Come on Italy

It is the party to which one looks most carefully. Like the UDC, it suffers from the sovereign grip Salvini-Meloni. If at the central level Silvio Berlusconi does not want or still fails to unmark himself, in Parliament there are many exponents attracted by an operation that falls within the orbit of Giuseppe Conte. The defection of Renata Polverini a clue. The intolerance of Renato Brunetta another. The component of Mara Carfagna and out of Cambiamo con Giuseppe Toti. But there are other movements underway. What seemed like a personal move turned political. Maria Rosaria Rossi the terminal of a group of dissatisfied parliamentarians who could join the ranks of the new group. There is talk of ten deputies and four senators.

Which group

Which group will host the Contiana rescue patrol? There are several hypotheses in this regard, considering that by regulation a group cannot be created from scratch, except by using a symbol that presented itself in the elections. One the Maie, the movement of those elected abroad, which already has 5 senators and which is considered too heterogeneous and not very presentable for a real political project. Another is the socialist one of Riccardo Nencini, who, however, has the senators of Italia Viva and would not be compatible with the popular wing. Finally, the most probable is that of Bruno Tabacci. His Democratic center the Chamber already has 13 deputies. There is no Senate, but Tabacci would be ready to grant the use of the symbol. There are those who dispute the regularity of the operation, given that it would be a new group, but the Democratic Center also presented itself to the Senate, together with + Europe.

January 21, 2021 (change January 21, 2021 | 13:03)

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