now a matter of hours, very few. From this morning the management of the crisis will pass into the hands of the President of the Republic, who has been ready for this outcome for several weeks. A tormented last mile that, with the resignation of the premier at the Quirinale, will formalize the end of the Conte bis government, opening the door wide to a horizon that is still dark at the moment. Of course, the tenant of Palazzo Chigi is convinced that he can recover today’s step backwards and be able to be reborn quickly, under the guise of a Count ter. But to do that he will have to get a new job from Sergio Mattarella. And this is not obvious. In fact, what took place after Matteo Renzi’s breakup and after the conquest of a very precarious trust by the Giallorossi executive shook the head of state. Who found himself wondering about the parliamentary viability of a majority with no future, but still had his hands tied. At least until the crisis was opened by an institutionally relevant act, destined to call it into question. Like Conte’s retirement, in fact. Before which the Colle could not suggest or impose anything.
A crucial point
These and other issues will be the basis of the face-to-face on the Hill, in which Mattarella expects the premier to rebuild him – in addition to the inevitable notebook of dolances on how he was unhorsed – his own conclusions about the whirlwind of closures and openings, provocations and commitments, bluffs and promises gathered on the weekend of feverish negotiations by his allies. Potential allies or already sure they are. Numbers aside, some questions will concern the role of Renzi and his party. Questions of this kind: do you think you can overcome the lack of communication between you, overcoming personal vetoes and rivalries? And will it be possible to reduce the distance with Italy alive, recovering it in a stronger government pact? A crucial issue is that of mutual reliability and the long-term prospects that the Quirinale looks at as a matter of official duty. Because if Conte felt cautioned by a new and congruous centrist group (the so-called fourth leg) the votes of the Renzians would be additional and not decisive, for the future majority; on the other hand, if the number of willing were insufficient, Italy alive would once again be decisive. With fearful uncertainties about the stability of any government formula it was possible to put in place.
The extreme gamble
Here is the political point of the consultations that Mattarella should begin tomorrow afternoon (in the morning he hosts the Shoah ceremonies) and that he will complete in a short time. I will listen to all the parliamentary groups and here the trap that Conte fears could materialize. The risk that some of the possible new members destined to expand the alliance will not indicate his name in the role of premier, nullifying his dream of being reinvested in the mandate. For example, it could be the longed-for neocentrist group, to demand a discontinuity in Palazzo Chigi. But there are those who do not exclude it may be Renzi himself, in an extreme gamble. Once the consultation has been completed, the president will verify whether there is room for a re-appointment to Conte. He wants certainties. It is very difficult for him to repeat what happened to Pier Luigi Bersani in March 2013. Remember? It was when the then secretary of the Democratic Party asked the Quirinale for the task of forming a government, confident of forming a majority that was not there. What Napolitano granted him was a pre-assignment, or conditional mandate, because it was immediately clear that the undertaking was prohibitive. And after seven days, Bersani had to give upsi.
January 25, 2021 (change January 25, 2021 | 23:10)
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