The second wave of the epidemic had a significant impact on the dynamism of the real estate market. After the signals coming from the agencies according to which a slowdown in negotiations has been recorded since October, similar considerations come from the financing front. In fact, the latest edition of the Crif-MutuiSupermarket Mortgage Compass on the one hand shows, on the basis of Bankitalia data, that in the first half of last year the new disbursements showed + 10% compared to the same months of 2019, but the result is explains with the fact that in the first half of the year, operations started at the end of 2019 and in the prelockdown period of 2020 were consolidated.
On the other hand, the report highlights that demand, recorded by the real-time credit scoring system, saw growth from June to September, and then stopped in October. As far as customer choices are concerned, requests for first home purchases and subrogations in the online channel were almost equivalent. In all cases the demand supported by the minimum level of rates, in 90% of cases the choice went to the fixed mortgage, thanks to values close to zero of IRS, the parameter of the long-term cost of money that serves as the basis for the rate determination. In concrete terms, this means, according to the report, that today cheaper products at a fixed rate, assuming a 20-year mortgage with coverage of 60% of the value of the house, are quoted at around 0.40%, only ten cents more than similar indexed loans .
As for the values of the guarantees, the Bussola shows that after an increase (+1.9) in prices per square meter in the first half of the year in October, there was a contraction of more than 3%, which could herald a decrease in prices, which, according to the report’s forecasts, should also be accompanied by a drop in transactions, while as regards mortgages, a slowdown appears likely, especially in requests for subrogation, for the simple reason that those who had the convenience to do so have already done so. Compass data, Stefano Rossini ad MutuiSupermarket notes: “The growth of the real estate market will increasingly depend on the evolution of the demand for home purchase mortgages, which despite being able to benefit from always very interesting real estate prices from regulatory measures to relaunch real estate such as superbonus with the transfer of credit, could suffer a new setback due to the rescheduling of household spending due to the evolution of the health emergency “.
And speaking of redevelopment, Stefano Magnolfi, Crif executive director points out an interesting study promoted by the European Commission and coordinated by EMF (European Mortgage Federation) which shows the lower risk for banks represented by mortgages on energy-efficient properties. “Taking into consideration about one million lines of credit, of which almost 100 thousand with data relating to the energy efficiency of buildings, it emerged that there is a negative correlation between energy efficiency of buildings and credit risk, or that the higher the energy class , the lower the risk that the loan will default “.