In the fourth quarter of 2020 it is estimated that GDP, expressed in linked values with the reference year 2015, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, decreased by 2% compared to the previous quarter and by 6.6% in trend terms. This was communicated by Istat, while specifying that the fourth quarter of 2020 had two working days less than the previous quarter and one day more than the fourth quarter of 2019. In 2020, therefore, the GDP corrected for the calendar effects decreased by ” 8.9%, while for GDP estimated on raw quarterly data the reduction was 8.8% (in 2020 there were 2 more working days than in 2019). The slightly better figure than the government’s expectations, which in the Update to the Def had estimated a contraction of 9% for the year.
Pil a -6.6%
Furthermore, Istat indicates the acquired change in GDP for 2021 equal to + 2.3%. After the robust recovery in the third quarter, the Italian economy recorded a new contraction in the fourth due to the economic effects of the new measures adopted to contain the health emergency. This result determines an expansion of the trend decline in GDP: from -5.1% in the previous quarter to -6.6%.
Net deterioration in services
The cyclical variation is the synthesis of a decrease in added value in all the main production sectors, namely agriculture, forestry and fishing, industry and services. On the demand side, there is a negative contribution from both the domestic component (gross of inventories) and the net foreign component. The preliminary estimate, which is, as always, provisional in nature, on the supply side reflects above all a clear worsening of the service economy, against a limited contraction in industrial activity.