The theme emerged clearly at the meeting with the appointed Prime Minister, Mario Draghi: the conditions for the recovery of the country will largely depend on how the transition from the moratorium to the market is planned and managed. A complicated step that affects banks and businesses alike. A number: so far the suspensions amount to about 300 billion and concern 2.7 million subjects. There are 200,000 suspended mortgages for a value of 96 billion.
within these numbers the government, banks and businesses will have to find a way out. In recent weeks the accounts have arrived. Very different scenarios, from the positive results of Intesa Sanpaolo to the red of Unicredit, equal to 2.8 billion, again due to the cleaning operation of Jean Pierr Mustier and Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which in ten years has accumulated losses for about 23 billion. Last year it was 1.6. Also in this case, the value adjustments of loans have weighed a lot, and the intervention of Amco, which is becoming the great public parachute for bad debts, has contributed greatly to ease the tension. But that’s not enough. With the arrival of Andrea Orcel, Unicredit will immediately have to show which cards the bank intends to play both on the commercial front and on the eventual marriage on the road to Siena. In jargon, investment bankers always talk about win-win operations. In this case the conditions will be decisive for both the State shareholder of Mps and for the private shareholders of the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti. An operation that could go so far as to involve Banco Bpm, it is said.
Meanwhile, those 300 billion moratoriums are suspended there. But when the government has to start thinking about the gradual transition, then behind those numbers there will be companies able to recover, others that will struggle more, others that unfortunately will not make it. Here, deciding who and how will be helped is a task not only for the banks but also depends a lot on the level of concreteness of the Recovery fund.
Coming out of the meeting with Draghi, ABI president Antonio Patuelli, said: Banks support and will support investments for modernization and development. Banks are committed to supporting resistance and recovery: we are concerned about the risks of businesses and banks together. And he asked for a gradual reduction in support. Time, it takes time.