The effect on the spread under the eyes of all: the confidence of the markets in Mario Draghi, engaged in consultations to dissolve the reserve on the formation of a new government, translated into a decrease in the BTP-Bund differential of less than 100 points. A level that has not been touched since the end of 2015, with the low reached on Friday at 93 basis points before closing at 98.1. With a drop of 17.9 points compared to the closing of last Tuesday, before the assignment was given to Draghi. What the cold market numbers do not tell is how much this drop in the spread is worth in terms of potential savings for the Treasury. This was calculated by the Public Accounts Observatory forAnsa: equal to 100 million of lower interest to be paid on approximately 500 billion of securities maturing and to be placed in 2021. A figure that is obtained by looking at the current decline in the yield of the BTP and counting an average of the last few days, around 0 56%, compared with the average of the first two weeks of January (0.58%).
This is a mechanical calculation, which uses that decrease of 0.02 percentage points, assuming that all government bonds are renewed at this instant (i.e. under these conditions) and at this rate. If the same technique of the Observatory were used, but taking into consideration the current average and that of the days of the government crisis, when the BTP yield had risen to 0.65%, a theoretical saving of almost over 900 million would be obtained. According to analysts such as Andrea Delitala, Head of Euro Multi Asset of Pictet Asset Management, in addition to the savings on interest already accrued throughout the decline in yields globally, which allows today to issue at average rates (between Bot, Cct and BTP) close to 0%, well below the average cost of our previous debt (about 2.5%), a narrowing of the spread of about 50 basis points is worth a further saving every year quantifiable in about 1.5 billion euros. . As if to say that if the spread falls further, around 60 points as in Spain, it could theoretically save another billion. But we need to move from theory to facts.