It’s a two-way challenge scheduled for today New Hampshire, the second American state to go to the Republican presidential primaries. But it already has the flavor of a predictable dispute, with the result already written (according to commentators, polls and predictions). Former United Nations Ambassador, Nikki Haleysecured the duel with the former president Donald Trump after the surprise retirement of the governor of Florida last Sunday, Ron DeSantis, with polls putting him at 6%. However, the fact that DeSantis has thrown in the towel does not guarantee Halley that the supporters of the ultra-Catholic governor will turn to him, especially after DeSantis has moved into Trump’s camp.
Nikki Haley, who is from New Hampshire, crossed her state in one frenetic countryside with the Republican governor of the state at his side, Chris Sununu, hoping to convince as many voters as possible. A tour full of stops at restaurants, schools, hotel ballrooms, homes of wealthy donors. The former occupant of the White House instead preferred the large ones conventionwhere he showed himself alongside politicians from South Carolina (a signal to his opponent, he is already looking beyond the “granite” state, as New Hampshire is defined for its mines).
Young people’s uncertainty about Trump’s victory
However, quite a few correspondents noted that the numbers of participants at the former president’s events in Manchester were lower than those of the previous campaign. In 2024, 4,100 people were reported present compared to over 12 thousand in 2020. Young people were notably absent, more interested in the migratory and border situation, the economy and the laws on transgenders and members of the LGBTQIA+ community. A Haley victory could alter the narrative of the GOP primary (Great Old Party, ed), but polls suggest that she is still at a disadvantage.
CNN was reporting on Sunday Trump clearly in the lead, with 50% supportAnd Haley stops at 39%. Those who could make the difference are the independent voters, who in this white, small state, not representative of the “true” and profound America, are authorized to vote in the primaries of both parties. New Hampshire ranks 31st among the 50 states for economic growth: the GDP recorded a growth rate of 4.5% in the third quarter compared to the previous year, while at a national level there was a +4.9% . Help for state budgets also comes from foreign direct investments, attracted by low tax rates. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in November, compared to a national average of 3.7%. Additionally, the workforce is highly educated, with 41.3% of the state’s residents having a college degree.
Dean Phillips, Democratic congressman from Minnesota
The mess in the democratic house
The vote in New Hampshire is essentially like a primary without candidates, even in the Democratic wing, where the big absentee from the list of 21 contenders is Joe Biden himself. New Hampshire refused to adapt to the new rules of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), which changed the voting calendar for the primaries, establishing that the first would be held in South Carolina on February 3, followed by New Hampshire and from Nevada on the 6th. Today’s vote, on the Democratic front, for the DNC, will be “meaningless” and will not decide the number of party delegates who will participate in the August Convention. However, if the Minnesota congressman, Dean Phillips, who challenged Biden precisely on age, were to win, the party would have to reconsider some positions. And then the game could reopen.